Overlooked is the fundamentals. LV's newly built housing supply will obviously slow down, and demand will catch up as (and, of course, "if") people continue to arrive in LV. Problem is that at today's levels, supply for owner occupied housing seems to be about two to three years out, assuming investors stay out of the market. Another assumption, and this is a big assumption, is that the upcoming election and its economic fallout does not dry up disposable income, adversely affecting the job market in LV. Tax increases advocated by Democrats could bring the economy to a sudden halt, (drying up disposable income and) slowing domestic travel to LV. (Some say that some sector's of the LV economy is already being driven largely by foreign visitors.) But if the economy stays healthy-ish, Vegas will return to its pre-sub-prime meltdown in about three years. IFs If Nevada tax policy remains advantageous, if Vegas continues to develop into the cultural center of the west coast (culture meaning shows and exhibits that display something of meaning beyond the nudes), if tax policy does not cripple the economy, if the dollar remains cheap, if some crazy Islamic fundamentalist does not find LV an attractive target, and IF builders in LV slow down the flow of new product, THEN in three years LV will return to a "normal" housing market.

Your If's are numerous and any of them are possibilities. The effect on any market including Las Vegas would be devastating. I doubt Las Vegas will do anything to cause any significant changes to it’s low tax policy, builders are reducing their standing inventory and slowing down new product, and as far as developing it’s cultural center theme I believe you will see that continue. First and foremost Las Vegas is about the “experience” which can’t be duplicated on scale anywhere in the world. Any of the other “IF’s” would not only hurt Las Vegas but the country as a whole. The appreciation ride here was phenomenal and was bound to reach a peak and correct. You make some great points about Vegas returning to a “normal’ market and it could take three years but the clients I’m currently dealing with are buying for the long term and feel confident about their purchase. There are some great buys available and I might also add that foreign investment in second homes is very attractive right now and upscale homes are doing well. Viva Las Vegas!

Adele Hrovat
The Buyer's Realty of Las Vegas
702-818-0633